Goodnight Irene

Well, Al Giordano, who has become a 'must read' serious pundit and number cruncher over at The Field with a pretty realistic handle on things, though clearly in the tank for Obama, sums it up pretty well:


There is no question any more that - despite the pronunciations of the dead-enders and the fantastic dark fantasies of some Obama supporters - we are in the end days of Clinton's quest for the White House. Within a week or two she will suspend her campaign (after, first, offering another bluff or two about "taking it to the convention" just to pull your beards one or two last times). Expect Obama to be conciliatory. And get ready for a great many Clinton partisans to warm to him considerably and begin to convert to his cause. Some of them will become his most enthusiastic faithful in short time.

Others - personified by the few hundred crazies that got caught on YouTube yesterday protesting the RBC meeting - will not. And far be it from me to try to talk them down off the ledge. I don't mean to be too much of a sadist and be the first to yell "jump!"

But, that said: "Jump! Please!"

Discipline among all players and even fans is a trademark of any winning team. The Obama camp demonstrated that it has cultivated that kind of discipline among its rank-and-file yesterday. The other camp did not.

Al Giordano - Mopping Up: Transitioning Out of the Pre-Season 1 Jun 08

I agree, the winning of hearts and minds presumes them functioning normally.  While there is much merit in conciliation and reconciliation at this stage of the primary, the general election looms.  It is the main event and the challenge which unites us all.  If it doesn't, there is only so much which can be bartered or compromised before the train leaves the station and that time is nigh.

Hillary supporters, your candidate fought a tenacious and competent campaign once she took control of it.  She is to be admired and respected.  But to try and promote faux issues on her behalf, or to extend them beyond their shelf-life and into the general election out of pique or ill-will is simply intolerable.

There are many Obama supporters willing to extend the olive branch and welcome the many loyal, well-spoken Hillary backers to join us in defeating McCain in November, as we surely will.  Many of the staff of her campaign who fought so tenaciously in her cause will no doubt be joining us.  To those in crisis, we will take the time and energy to talk you down off the ledge but if you insist on staying there and hurling insults at the rest of us or regale us with disruptive schemes or arguments with which you would attempt to squander this opportunity or thwart our aspirations you should perhaps reconsider.

There are only two ways down from the ledge and we will help you take the more comfortable route, but this is a busy time for us so tarry not.  If, on the other hand, you are determined to jump you are on your own and you may as well go now and be done with it.

Update: To be perfectly clear this is not a criticism of Hillary supporters in general, far from it, but is a response to the few who promote ongoing, and counter-productive, angst here over voting metrics when the RBC has already ruled, continue attacks on Senator Obama when it is increasingly clear he is the presumptive nominee and declare tacit or overt support for McCain on a progressive Democratic blog during an election year.



Display:


Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

Well, I guess this helps validate the decision many Clinton supporters are weighing to abandon the party and presumptive nominee.


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 06:59:29 AM EST

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

Many?  Let's hope not.  But howling abuse at the RBC members isn't going to help, is it?


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:01:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Um, it does.  When you suppress dissent, it foments and translates into rebellion.  This was the exact rationalte behind the nation's founders' implementation of the First Amendment.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:16:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

Sounds a bit incendiary in the current context, don't you think?  Realistically, what impact do you think that the RBC protest had beyond alienating the presumably large population of sympathetic supporters who couldn't see themselves as actors in that kind of drama?  From an Obama supporter's perspective the images were disquieting but definitely not a threat in the 'winning the hearts and minds' contest, quite the contrary.

Frankly, beyond the damage done to the party as a whole I don't think that protest furthered Hillary's cause for the nomination one iota.  What it did do is cast some doubt on the gravitas of the Democratic primary process overall and that's where the disquieting part comes in, whose interests are served by that?  Surely not Hillary's, or her supporters...  and yet that's what happened, isn't it?


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:29:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

That's not how I see the protest.  The protested a demonstrable dissatisfaction with the substitution of a 30 member committee's judgment for the votes of 2.3 million Americans.  It suggested a deep fissure in the party, not that this should come as much of a surprise given the trend in exit polls from Pennsylvania (35% of Clinton supporters won't support Obama) to Indiana/North Carolina (50%) to WV/Kentucky (over 70%).  

It's a real phenomenon; it's not a faux threat.  It's, like most life decisions, both emotional and cerebral.  I feel it, I see it profusely online and perhaps more importantly, offline, in my lifelong Democratic friends some who have actually shocked me with their fiercely anti-Obama resolutions per the failed primary process.  

It's easy for me to believe because I'm very far left and very opposed to GOP policies and yet I have a deep dissatisfaction with the unfairness shown to Hillary.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:37:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Pardon the questionable grammar and typos.  I didn't sleep well due to an insane traffic jam on the turnpike that delayed my trip home by many hours.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:39:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

Well, I've pretty much avoided the lengthy debate on FA and MI over the past few weeks largely because I have been following this primary daily since it started and I saw the whole thing unfold in detail.  I can remember Hillary taking the pledge, before Iowa and New Hampshire, regarding these primary contests and I understood she did so because of the rivalry between those states and the 'upstarts' at the time in anticipation of those contests, and her consequent electoral prospects in those early states which felt threatened by the unsanctioned calender changes.

To turn this into an issue into which angry Democrats can pour their angst over the 2000 election, for example, or somehow make this an issue where Senator Obama was somehow culpable or involved, even passively, is ludicrous.  Yet this is basically the argument you are making, using our argument against the Bush of 2000 against a fellow Democrat who had no such intention or involvement.

This is a Democratic party problem, and a serious one.  But to inflame it rather than resolve it as quickly and smoothly as possible damages only ourselves, hence the tone of my diary.  It seems, to put it bluntly, selfish and counter-productive.

I won't, in the interests of reconciliation, go into my feelings about Hillary's motives or methods in leveraging this unfortunate turn of events to her own perceived advantage, not that it achieved much, frankly.  But for her supporters to make this their casus belli at this late stage in the primary makes me doubt their wisdom and her motivations.  It's our party.  You should be angry at the Iowa and New Hampshire state organisation and the DNC, if anyone, and how silly is that?


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:57:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's a pretty standard phenomenon (2.00 / 1)

The exits have shown precisely this same thing before.

In 2000 - the McCain-support-won't-back-Bush numbers also eclipsed 50%.

If I bothered to check my comments from 2004 either here or at DK, I'll bet I said I wouldn't back John Kerry.   I'm certain that I said I wouldn't work for Kerry (because a friend re-forwarded me an old e-mail exchange we had back in spring 2004 this past weekend).

...and guess what.

Not only did I donate to Kerry, but I ended up traveling multiple weekends to both Wisconsin and Iowa to canvass for Kerry.


by zonk on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 09:35:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a pretty standard phenomenon (none / 0)

IIRC, the McCain/Bush divide ended long before June.  And as white males, neither would have made historic firsts.

This type of fissure is unprecedented.  It would be blind to assume the fault lines are going to vanish overnight with a sprinkle of magic Obama dust.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:15:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a pretty standard phenomenon (none / 0)

Are you sure you're not engaging in some dramatic wishful thinking?  What's the problem with unity if it can be achieved?


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:30:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a pretty standard phenomenon (none / 0)

It's a forced acquiescence to something I find objectionable (Barack Obama).  I see him as a transparent fraud.  The critical issue for me is whether my alignment with Democratic policy will prevail over my outright disgust for the party's personnel.  

There is no rush for me to decide, as day by day more information emerges and conjugations change.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:33:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

"I'm very far left and very opposed to GOP policies"

i find it hard to believe that people who consiedr themselves "very far left" support hillary at all.

hillary refused debate with tasini who was challenging her for the senate. tasini's positions were/are left of hillary's.

i will just mention iraq, iran, israel............hillary is no left winger when it comes to foreign policy and i would dare to say that her campaign tactics had that rovian aroma as well.


by citizendave on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 10:11:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

My philosophies can't be described as centrist because I'm very pro-equality, anti-corporate, humanist, environmentally concerned, and I still believe in human dignity.  I trust Hillary on foreign affairs much more than Barack Obama.  I'm sick of hearing about her Iraq vote when IIRC, 99 out of 100 senators endorsed it, the exception being Feingold from Wisconsin.  I'm not sold on the purity of Obama's Iraq stance because my understanding is that his opposition stemmed only from self-interested protection of a business deal in Iraq that would have been obstructed by the war.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:48:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Ninety-nine out of a hundred?  You don't remember correctly, there were twenty-three dissenting votes, a little less than half of the Democrats at the time and one Republican.  It isn't that simple.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:04:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Thank you.  What was the well publicized war-related resolution that Feingold opposed while 99 Senators supported it?  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:35:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

I have no idea.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:36:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Ok, no prob.


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:50:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

And I agree, alienating 50% of the party is something we can't afford. So, what do you suggest?


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:05:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

I will let you know when I do some searching and decide how to reconcile by very strong beliefs in the party's principles with my very visceral dislike of the party's personnel.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:17:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 2)

Absolutely. Actually, I think it's kind of interesting that Senator Obama was the one who was supposed to have the crazy supporters, and Clinton the ones who were experienced, disciplined, and 100% on message. Obviously, the vast majority of Clinton supporters are like this, but the impression given by recent events is otherwise. Sad, really, but I'm excited to be working with the Clinton supporters whose hard work is the only thing, in my opinion, that kept Senator Clinton going this long- they're a credit to her candidacy, and I'll be proud to work with them.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:05:07 AM EST

Oh right (none / 0)

Can you honestly say if the shoe was on the other foot that Obama's supporters wouldn't have been just as outraged if not worse?  Obama was winning the argument - why would they protest.  I have heard more than one talking head threaten over these past few months that if Clinton "stole" the nomination there would be riots in the streets etc.  So please get off your condescending high horse.

The fact is I believe Obama is unqualified and his vague promises of change and hope leave me cold. My take on his lack of ability has nothing to do with Clinton actually.


by emmasaint on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:59:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh right (2.00 / 2)

The shoe was on the other foot actually.  The RBC when it was controlled by people sympathetic to the Clinton campaign stripped two states of all of their delegates.

All candidates signed pledges banning participation in the primaries.

As soon as that was over, the Clinton campaign attempted a bait and switch whereby they were going to now elevate the two primaries to full status.  We had every reason in the world to head down and protest the meeting.


We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.
by Jess81 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 09:29:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Sen. Obama asked his supporters not to attend the meeting because he wouldn't want to be associated with the types of slogans it would take to espouse his positions on Florida/Michigan.

"Don't count them."

"Rules before voters."

"20.C.1.a is sacred.  Respect its sanctity."  

The Obama position on this matter is morally bankrupt and involves discriminatory application of rules against Clinton states while turning a blind eye to violations by both Obama leaning states (Iowa, South Carolina) and Obama's campaigning violations.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:13:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Morally bankrupt?  Isn't your argument really with the Florida and Michigan Democratic state organisations which advanced their calendar in contravention of national party agreements which they endorsed in the first place?  Admittedly the Republicans were the perpetrators of the Florida controversy but it's hard to see how the blame rests with Obama's campaign.  This is just the kind of pointless inflammatory, divisive rhetoric the diary is targeting.  Time's up on this kind of thing.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:35:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Time isn't up on my opinion, sorry.

I think you misconstrued what I said as placing direct blame for the fiasco on Obama.  I said the arguments and slogans one would need to participate in a rally would be morally bankrupt.  (Distortions of) Rules v. Voters?  Don't kid yourself.  

No blame for Florida Democrats who had no actual say in the matter, since they were blackmailed by the GOP with the paper trail + primary change combination.

Michigan acted in response to New Hampshire moving from 3rd in line to 1st in line, without penalty.  New Hampshire didn't like behind behind Nevada.  New Hampshire wasn't punished.  Michigan called the DNC's bluff.  Michigan was punished.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 05:43:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

We mostly agree except when it comes to the buzzer having gone.  Florida Democrats got rail-roaded but there's a case where the state organisation should have screamed bloody murder at the time rather than tacitly being led.  As for Michigan, I don't know what they were dreaming of.  I take your point about New Hampshire but they were already in the 'first four' club by mutual agreement, Michigan wasn't by a long shot.

But honestly, is the kind of fractious rhetoric which has been the public edge of this controversy, especially when promoted vociferously by a certain candidate with comparisons to 2000 and Zimbabwe, really the way we want to air our dirty linen?  It has been used as a wedge to divide the party at exactly the time when that is our biggest potential threat.  There has been plenty of such rhetoric here and in the media at large and for what?  To garner a few more votes for Hillary?  To raise a smokescreen behind which superdelegates have a plausible narrative for endorsing her?  By all accounts it hasn't worked.

There is a growing apprehension among elected Democrats and the party membership that some of Hillary's supporters would prefer a loss in 2008 to promote her chances of another run in 2012, based on this kind of inexplicable promotion of a destructive message.  Is this so?  It is hard to explain otherwise at this late stage in the primary.  If that is where this is headed I reckon loyal Democrats have every right to push back on that kind of thinking, and hard.  It just won't fly, thanks, as a strategy for the party.  The party's prospects must always come first, just think of the impact on vital down-ticket races, even in state governments.  We are all in this together and if we aren't something is fundamentally wrong and the minority has got to be dealt with.  It sets a terrible precedent for the future, placing the personal aspirations of a candidate above the interest of the party as a whole, it's the one area where we have a crucial advantage over the selfish Republicans and if we squander it we are lost.


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 07:18:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Is this supposed to be helpful? (none / 0)

Seriously, is this your idea of helping to heal the party?


by joanneleon on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:13:36 AM EST

Re: Is this supposed to be helpful? (2.00 / 1)

Conciliation and reconciliation are the order of the day, to be sure, but there remains a vocal and disruptive minority of those, both here and at the recent RBC meeting, apparently, who seem to have placed themselves beyond the reach of such approaches.  We have an election to win, and soon.  Perhaps in a few short weeks it will be time to look at this situation as a problem of diminishing returns.

I felt I had created a fairly conciliatory context for this notion in the diary, Lord knows there are plenty of Obama supporters who have been trying to mend fences for quite some time.  Our success, it seems, has largely been on the basis of the good will and common cause felt by the majority of Hillary supporters in defeating the Republicans in November, I'm all for that.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:40:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Judging from the all diaries popping up here saying basically the same thing, I'm thinking this is the Obama supporters' version of offering the olive branch:

Shut up and fall in line

This is not how you get people on your side, folks.


by skohayes on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:18:33 AM EST

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

Gee, imagine how much cyberspace I could have spared with those six simple words.  Do you really think that is what the diary is intending to say?


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:58:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

With all due respect Shaun, there is more than whiff of condescension in this diary. Here's a prime example:

To those in crisis, we will take the time and energy to talk you down off the ledge...

And this:

There are only two ways down from the ledge and we will help you take the more comfortable route, but this is a busy time for us so tarry not.

How generous of you.  We appreciate your largess in talking us off that ledge. You're so considerate. Thank you for showing us the way.

Yes, there are some crazies that support Clinton, as there who support any candidate.  They're best ignored.  But your diary seems to refer to all Clinton supporters (or at least a large group of us) as being "on a ledge".  That's insulting and superior...and wrong. We aren't on a ledge, we simply chose a different candidate than you did. That doesn't make us wrong or in need of your guidance.

I'm sure you meant well, but your tone is very irritating.  The simple fact is when can't afford to be smug and superior - we need all of the Clinton folks to help us defeat Johnny (sans the 3% crazy people). We get that by telling them what is great about Obama and by honoring Clinton, not by telling them we'll give guidance to them, but they better tow the line and do as they're told.


No Way. No How. No McCain.
by Denny Crane on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:58:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

No offense intended, and if any was inferred please accept my apologies.  I had hoped that it was clear I was referring to those in 'crisis,' as Al did when he referred to, 'others - personified by the few hundred crazies that got caught on YouTube yesterday protesting the RBC meeting.'  I certainly am not trying to impose ill-will on Hillary supporters, just attempting to appeal to those who are still unreconciled to the nomination and yet remain loyal to the Democratic party.  At the same time there are apparently those whom will not be satisfied and I'm suggesting it may be a waste of time to continue these protracted and fractious debates when time is short and there is much to do.

The diary is a response to the ongoing angst here over voting metrics when the RBC has already ruled, the continued attacks on Senator Obama when it is increasingly clear he is the presumptive nominee and the inappropriate tacit or overt support for McCain on a progressive Democratic blog during an election year.  You can see the evidence for yourself on the diary list any time of the day or night.  It is unacceptable, to me, that this would continue.  I would expect that after a suitable period of mourning these would cease, that's all, and we need to be mindful that the general election is already upon us.

Consider this, for example, from today's NY Post:


June 2, 2008 -- We'd heard a lot about Barack Obama's fanatical sup porters, but little about Hillary Clinton's frenzied following - until this past weekend's meeting of the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee.

Yet that passion is teetering on the brink of morphing into a raging anti-Obama force.

[...]

YouTube has several disturbing video clips of such Clinton supporters, including a tirade by a New York woman who claims, "The Democrats are throwing the election away . . . for an inadequate black male who would not have been running had it not been a white woman who was running for president."

At a rally a few blocks from the DNC meeting, a New Republic reporter witnessed Clinton supporters fawning over Larry Sinclair, a Minnesotan peddling fliers titled, "Obama's Dirty Little Secrets: Murder, Drugs, Gay Sex." Sinclair has posted YouTube videos alleging he used cocaine with Obama and performed a sex act on him in 1999. One Hillary supporter advised Sinclair, "You could improve your credibility if you downplayed the gay sex and focused on the drugs."

If this is the best try at unity, Democrats are in trouble.

Kirsten Powers - HILLARY'S CRAZY CREW NYP 2 Jun 08

We have our share of this kind of energy here, too.  And for what?  What benefit can this possibly serve if one surrenders one's anger and apparent hurt for a moment and considers the prospects of the party and our progressive aspirations for the next eight years irrespective of the candidate we are running for the presidency?


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 09:35:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

OK.  I'm glad to know that I misunderstood you - it didn't seem like your usual manner. I think those folks that are attacking Sen. Obama are likely the ones who will never vote for him anyway - I hope I'm wrong, but that's the way it looks to me. In that regard, your post make perfect sense.  It's entirely appropriate to limit the amount of resources we put into convincing those folks to see the bigger picture.  My apologies.


No Way. No How. No McCain.
by Denny Crane on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 09:57:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

No apology necessary.  I certainly didn't intend to offend the very supporters which any sane Democrat would want to have aligned in favour of our nominee in this important election which we all have worked so hard for already, whatever our candidate preferences.

You made me realise how sensitive and personal this issue is and wish I had made more explicit disclaimers in the first instance, thanks for your input.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 10:03:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

It's hard to predict the extent to which HRC will be able to put this behind her and campaign in the Fall.  Will it be perfunctory (my guess as of today) or enthusiastic? (could be asking too much)   At a minimum, we have to ask her as Democrats to do no harm to the Obama candidacy.  

I'd ballpark that 80% of her supporters are reachable over time (by the Fall) by stressing the common goals and a shared preference over McCain.  The other 20% are going to do whatever they're going to do and it is probably wise to ignore them.    

I've been reading some people say that a smart way for Obama to reach out to Clinton supporters is through Bill.  To play to his natural ham by getting him involved (with a short leash) and help him rehabilitate himself to parts of the party that he has lost.  That seems to make sense.    

Whatever happens, it's going to take a couple of months to shake out.  The high percentages of Clinton supporters who say they will not support Obama in these later contests is obviously a concern.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbdOFz_PQ OQ


Our Moment Is Now
by mboehm on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 07:22:58 AM EST

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

I agree that Bill Clinton could do much to alleviate this issue.  There seems little more that the Obama campaign can do publicly than they have already attempted.  An interesting trial balloon in yesterday's Telegraph, for example:


Hillary Clinton will be offered a dignified exit from the presidential race and the prospect of a place in Barack Obama's cabinet under plans for a "negotiated surrender" of her White House ambitions being drawn up by Senator Obama's aides.

The former First Lady would get the chance to pilot Mr Obama's reforms of the American healthcare system if she agrees to clear the path to his nomination as Democratic presidential candidate.

Senior figures in the Obama camp have told Democrat colleagues that the offer to Mrs Clinton of a cabinet post as health secretary or to steer new legislation through the Senate will be a central element of their peace overtures to the New York senator.

Tim Shipman - Hillary Clinton to be offered dignified exit Daily Telegraph 1 Jun 08

And so forth.  I'd be hoping your ballpark estimate is conservative, but you're right that the 'unreachable' will have to be abandoned if there is nothing that will satisfy them save unconditional victory.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:12:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

I don't know if I believe that story.  I doubt that Obama has offered anything (other than general signals of reconciliation) or is sending trial balloons, it's way too early.  I  personally think that Obama himself has great respect for Clinton and that the reports of friction between the camps are way overblown and not coming from Obama or Axelrod.

One attributed quote in that story rings true because HRC is still in primary campaign mode:  

Dee Dee Myers, the former press secretary to President Clinton, said: "It seems clear to me from watching her, and talking to people, that she doesn't really know what she wants.


Our Moment Is Now
by mboehm on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:59:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

Yes, that struck me too as having the ring of truth to it as well and goes a long way toward explaining the current state of play in her campaign.  But why would this story appear out of the blue if it wasn't an attempt at reconciliation, at least on the part of Obama's campaign?  There was a similar article last week on the role Bill Clinton might play as a conciliator, apropos of your original comment.  I thought that one even more unlikely yet it did spread a little oil on troubled waters and was picked up in the US media.  Do you think the Telegraph is just making this stuff up?


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 09:41:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 2)

Oh, and thanks for the link to the song, I always liked The Weavers.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:50:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Al is terrific, and a better reporter than most of the big names

"Jump, please" -- I love it

I don't care to be in a party with people as ugly as those "Hillary supporters" who protested the meeting or who post on sites like Hillary is44  or (sometimes) even MyDD whining and wailing and threatening fellow progressives in a fit of spoiled brat sore loserdom

Nor do I care to be in a party with racists who won't vote for "the black guy" in Kentucky and West Virginia

Winning means nothing if it is done without honor; and we can win this without compromising with people who are not reasonable or authentic in their passions

As for the last die hard HRC supporters, they'll be like Japanese soldiers on an island, still fighting a long over war
"


by fightbull on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:35:12 AM EST

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

Shaun: good diary, thanks. And thanks to people who wrote in questioning the intent of the diary. You are not the people that Shaun is talking to for the most part. I am a major conciliator in principle (and try to be in action) but I can agree that there are a small but not totally numerically irrelevant number of Clinton supporters who are now using any excuse to just cause chaos with our process and have no interest in hearing rational thought about how to win the election in the fall. These people are still welcome if they can put their anger and disappointment behind them. It is personal anger and disappointment being acted on and not that of the party or of Hillary Clinton herself so don't put yourself above the party and the process.

That being said, we want as many foot soldiers as possible in the fall so I will do my best to welcome everyone.


by wasder on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:35:32 AM EST

What, and follow you? (none / 0)

No thanks.


by JimR on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:36:00 AM EST

Re: What, and follow you? (2.00 / 1)

Not following me. I am but a foot soldier. Follow the movement of Democrats in action. This is an election we can lose only if we break ourselves apart. Its on us folks.


by wasder on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:56:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What, and follow you? (2.00 / 1)


Lead me, follow me, or get out of my way.

General George S Patton


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 08:57:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"We've been thrown... (2.00 / 1)

out of better places than this."

Bullwinkle J. Moose


by JimR on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 09:48:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

God (2.00 / 1)

This was so condescending...but then so is Obama...and so it figures you would like the guy.

Please stop threatening me - like I am going to miss the Obama train to loserville.  I am laughing...If he does happen to win, his presidency will be a mess.  So your threats are meaningless.  I can't wait to slap my "Don't blame me, I voted for Hillary" bumper sticker on my car.


by emmasaint on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 09:03:05 AM EST

Re: God (none / 0)

Wow....how petty and beligerent can you be?


by wasder on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 11:49:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

I am an Obama supporter and I understand where you are coming from.

However, I think this is a poorly timed diary and contributes to the tense environment around here.  I think it would be more appropriate to discuss this issue a couple weeks after the candidate who does not win leaves the race, and that candidates supporters have some time to mourn.


by GreenHills on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 09:13:47 AM EST

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 1)

Perhaps you're right.  My concern is the increasing damage wrought on the candidate, at least, if not the party, by some of this nonsense.  I certainly wasn't trying to incite ill-will, as it seems I might have done.  Yet we need to be pretty realistic and perhaps accept some Hillary supporters are just never going to be inclined to come around.

And ill-will has been pretty much in evidence for awhile around here, in spite of efforts on both sides to ameliorate our differences.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 09:46:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (2.00 / 2)

Al Giordano is a political veteran.  He sees this as one more nomination fight, of many he's observed and covered.  He doesn't have a lot of patience for many of us, Obama or Clinton supporters, who are freaked out about this particular fight.  According to him, the writing's been on the wall for ages, Obama won a long time ago, and we're all a bit silly for STILL considering it a contest.  He wants us to get it and move on.

Anyways.  I don't love the suicide imagery, but this is Al's tough love.


McCain: because not everyone's ready to say goodbye to W yet!
by Matt Smith on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 09:25:17 AM EST

I have been feeling much the same way. (2.00 / 1)

I want to add a shout out to the Clinton supporters on this site who have offered their hands in the spirit of unity.  I have an enormous amount of respect for people like indydem99, sricki and zcflint(sp?) and others.

Personal annecdote:
I flew to FL to be with my mother on the day my dad died.  We clung together for a week laughing, crying and just trying to get through the days.  One day at the laundromat I saw an elderly couple who spent the entire time bickering back and forth.  That threw me into a fit of sobbing.  The more they bickered, the more I cried.  All I could think of is that is what people do when they are together a long time.  Loving couples who have been together many years bicker back and forth.  Loving families bicker back and forth.

Was that relevant? I don't know but it came to mind.


No Way, No How, No McCain!
by GFORD on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 10:22:42 AM EST

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

A good way to ensure that the more reasonable Clinton supporters become full-fledged members of the team would be to repudiate a lot of the bullshit you've spewed about her over the course of this primary.

It's very hard for me to work up the energy to advocate for Sen. Obama when every day I see his supporters going on about her race-baiting campaign and all that other crap.  I mean, it's fine if you want to stand by these claims about Hillary, but understand that you might be standing alone.

Or, perhaps, we could agree that stuff got blown way out of proportion for political gain and work on moving forward together.  Extending the olive branch does, in fact, require some effort.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 02:33:26 PM EST

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

A good point but if you're directing that comment at me personally I'm going to have to stand by my remarks regarding Bill's comments post-South Carolina, but I'm quite prepared to do it quietly.  There are a few footnotes to this campaign that don't need to be in our final draft, don't you think?  I reckon history is on my side with that one, frankly, for reasons discussed long ago, but there has been a lot of other crap mentioned on both sides which you would not have heard me reiterating any of around here lately.

Coming from someone who was originally for Edwards and then a sort of faux arbitrator between both remaining factions before finally 'coming-out' for Clinton surely you can see the validity of some claims from both sides.  If one wanted to make a case for it one might suggest that the long-standing electoral math argument from Hillary's camp has been as disruptive as it has been ineffective but that's not the argument being made here and now.

So sure, let's agree that stuff got blown way out of proportion for political gain and work on moving forward together.  We surely need finely tuned minds like yours working in our common cause unimpeded by lingering doubts or a sense of injustice.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 05:09:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

I am going to assume that you did not intend "coming-out" as some sort of challenge to my integrity, but I'm not quite sure how else to take it.  I mean, faux arbitrator?

I am going to ask you, point blank, yes or no: Do you still believe the Clinton campaign used a "new Southern strategy" aimed at galvanizing racial resentment against Obama?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 05:40:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Sadly, yes, but I am certainly willing to put it behind us.  Let us speak no more of it.

And as for your close parsing of my characterisation of your position throughout this campaign let's just say it was pretty clear you were leaning heavily towards Hillary towards the latter period of the time you were still presenting as an uncommitted former Edwards supporter.  Having said that you are an original thinker and an eloquent spokesperson for independent perspectives whom I often find myself in total agreement with on matters which conventional wisdom and the general public may have missed or misinterpreted.

Can we not both hold different opinions on matters no longer of consequence to our common aspirations?  I find in matters of foreign and domestic policy, for example, that you are a refreshingly well-informed interlocutor and consistently elevate the discussion.  I am quite prepared to focus on the things we obviously agree about and leave our differences where they probably belong at this stage of the process.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 05:49:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

I have always been 100% honest regarding my opinion of all the candidates at every stage of this primary.  Edwards was my #1 choice until the point where it became obvious to me he had no chance to be a factor in this election.  I am disappointed that you would question my honesty.

I have always liked Hillary, but I never imagined myself supporting such a politically cautious candidate.  Ultimately, I was persuaded by some of the excellent positive diaries from her more notable supporters at this site (most of whom, sadly, seem to no longer be with us; maybe Hillary really did stop paying her vendors).  The pro-Obama diaries, on the other hand, largely managed to turn me off, through a combination of intellectually incoherent arguments and indefensible attacks on Hillary.  Your own diaries on foreign policy issues were a notable exception and much appreciated.  To this day, I have great hope for Obama's potential on foreign policy, although his random efforts at pandering make me suspect that he's going to end up like all the others.  (Talk with Iran, but talking with Hamas is off the table?  Come on.)

Moving on, I simply cannot make common cause with someone who insists on believing that Hillary Clinton is a race-baiter.  My own diary over the weekend was a depressing affair in terms of how many Obama supporters are simply unwilling to let go of the various myths that have been made over the course of this primary, and the myths about the Clintons and race are by far the most pernicious.  Fine, you guys have your precious narrative, but the bottom line is this:  You can win or lose this election on your own.  I'll be saving my advocacy for the paying clients.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 06:15:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodnight Irene (none / 0)

Well I certainly didn't mean to impugn your honesty although I must admit your 'spewing bullshit' comment stung a little.  You do the impartial arbitrator quite well and would be a convincing judge someday, an honour I hope you achieve if that is your intention.

As for 'race-baiting' I'm not sure I would have conceded that point.  'New Southern Strategy,' however, was impossible to resist as it seemed couched in terms appropriate to the kind of realistic calculation we both know the Clinton apparatus capable of, and, frankly, admire them for in many respects.

But my point is that we both have our own standards of intellectual 'honesty' and no doubt they both have some flaws in the perspective of others, it is a difficult business.  But at least you and I seem to have the knack of keeping our own counsel without being swayed by the kind of imprinting and narratives which constitute much of a modern political campaign and that is to be admired if not always appreciated.

In any case I agree with you about more things than we disagree about, methinks, not least of which the foreign policy issues you mentioned and on which we have tacitly cooperated in the past.  I am still confident that Obama has shifted the narrative on these issues and look forward with some anticipation to watching these unfold more fully if and when we win the White House.

I am disappointed that you don't feel enthusiastic about the prospects of an Obama candidacy and seem to have washed your hands of it but I would also be the first to admit that we could use a fine mind such as yours, even as a critic or proctor, and hope there is some way the 'pernicious narrative' could be laid to rest from your point of view.  We are all entitled to our opinions and I certainly can understand yours, but they don't necessarily have to alienate us from our common purpose when good will and mutual respect are abundantly in evidence.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 06:44:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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